photo by Patrick Kelley, U.S. Coast Guard; U.S. Geological Survey (source: Flickr Creative Commons)

Arctic temperatures have risen twice as fast in recent decades as temps in the rest of the world. Melting sea ice – considered part of a positive feedback loop – as well as wind, cloud and ocean current changes have been suspected of driving this rapid warming, known as Arctic amplification.

A positive feedback loop is a system where the cause and effect perpetuate one another, like a vicious circle.

A new study shows that Arctic warming from melting sea ice may be driving a positive feedback loop between rising temperatures and disappearing ice.

From an article in the Guardian:

The concept of Arctic sea ice having a tipping point is still hotly debated. Our results cannot prove whether we have passed a tipping point or not. What we can say is that the emergence of these strong ice-temperature feedbacks can only increase the likelihood of further rapid warming and sea ice loss.

–James Screen, study leader, University of Melbourne, Australia

The global melting of floating ice is also a concern as it threatens to significantly raise sea levels. Floating ice has been disappearing at a steady rate over the last 10 years, according to a groundbreaking study. The loss of floating ice has totaled more than ice loss on land from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

From a Reuters report:

‘It’s a large number,’ said Professor Andrew Shepherd of the University of Leeds, lead author of the paper, estimating the net loss of floating sea ice and ice shelves in the last decade at 7,420 cubic kilometers.

Ironically, some scientists believe that the hole in the ozone over Antarctica – created by mankind’s now-banned use of CFCs – has slowed warming temperatures and ice melt there. However as the ozone hole closes, Antarctic temperatures could increase an average of 3C, causing sea levels to rise by 1.4 meters.

Colin Summerhayes, executive director of SCAR – the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research – was quoted in a Guardian article back in November of last year regarding the dangers of Antarctic ice melt:

It contains 90% of the world’s ice, 70% of the world’s fresh water and that is enough, if it melts, to raise sea levels by 63m.

by Graham Land

Additional resources:

NASA – Sea Ice Yearly Minimum with Graph Overlay 1979-2008

Yale Environment 360 – The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Sobering Update on the Science

photo by Jeff Hannigan (source: U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Oceans absorb half of the world’s carbon dioxide. This may have a mitigating effect on climate change, but it also makes the oceans more acidic, which could endanger the Earth’s marine life. As oceanic ph levels change, it is not known how this might affect marine microorganisms, animals that are crucial to the food chain, oxygen production and cloud formation.

Whatever the outcome, it is clear is that the oceans are being altered and that it will have an impact on those who rely on them, human beings for one.

–Al Jazeera

Check out this video report from the Canadian Arctic by Al Jazeera English on ocean acidification in the Arctic:

Pollution endangering Arctic oceans

Also check out reporter Steve Chao’s accompanying blog entitled The ‘evil twin’ of climate change.

by Graham Land

While these top-line issues make headlines, at the core of all these emerging Arctic issues, is climate change. These meetings were based on the Ilulissat Declaration of 2008, which recognizes – and is largely based on – the quickly changing Arctic due to climate change. Today’s meetings showed us which international players are thinking and acting on issues of climate.

Today Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere reminded all ministers of the rationale behind their meeting. “I think we are discovering that the Arctic is climbing to the top attention of the international community, and for good reason, because of climate change, new sailing routes, available resources [and] geo-political changes.”

Canadian Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon seconded that thought by a thin thread by noting, “The Arctic Ocean region is on the verge of significant and fundamental change.” Minutes later, he merged into the fact that climate change was also helping us uncover 1/5 of the remaining petroleum reserves, which lie largely within the jurisdiction of the five coastal states invited to the ministerial – an issue that environmental and indigenous groups took issue with earlier today. “International interest in the region has never been greater,” he said.

And despite Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham Clinton, breezing past the press gallery without a word (a little heart-breaking, yet understandable given our remarkably short-term relationship), she certainly made up for it this afternoon on CTV’s Power Play interview with Tom Clark (full script here) as she had her say on the Arctic ministerial and the plethora of issues at hand and at stake.

She explained, as did Cannon, the need for countries such as the United States and Canada to band together to take on new northern challenges as climate change opens up the great North. “Neither of us could do it alone; together we’re getting very valuable information.”

“I mean, there are so many issues that ten years ago were theoretical. Today they’re real. We are seeing the retreat of the ice - unfortunately. We are seeing our indigenous populations under greater and greater pressure. I am working with Foreign Minister Cannon to see how we can make progress on some of these matters that up until now have been academic, but now we need to take them seriously and try to make progress together.”

And on climate change? Clinton says, “We have to do research into the fisheries as the water warms because of climate change in the Arctic – What’s going to happen to the fishing stock and how do countries like the United States and Canada, which share a coastal region with the Arctic Ocean, get prepared for that?”

“If we don’t start coordinating, yes, there is the potential for some challenges. But I think if we get ahead of it, and we lay out how we’re going to do this, I believe we can be in good shape going forward.”

As climate change continues to impact northern regions, issues of security, safety, peace and development are all issues at the forefront of governments minds. The climate scientists called it. And now it’s here. Our goal now is to adapt to the changes we’ve already locked ourselves in to, while pushing as hard and as fast as we can to stop emissions from growing in the world.

Today’s meetings showed that our leaders are ready to deal with the challenges, while Clinton, Okada and Stoere go as far as to understand the true depths and importance of why these issues have become issues n the first place.

Like Minister Cannon said, “We clearly understand the potential of the north – the vast magnificent northern treasure – for generations to come.” It’s now up for all Arctic states to prove this is the case.

Filed under: Canada, Climate Policy, Economics, Events, g8, Government, International Affairs, Interviews, Oceans, Politics, Reporting Team, United States

source: harpercollins.com

Alun Anderson is the author of the book After The Ice: Life, Death and Politics in the New Arctic. He was previously editor at New Scientist magazine and has also worked as an editor for the journals Nature and Science.

From a review of After the Ice in The Economist:

Mr Anderson looks in on the extraordinary, tiny world of the tributary system within the Arctic ice, formed by trickles of briny water which gets squeezed as it freezes. But from the bear above to the microscopic wonders within, all are doomed once the summer ice goes, which is expected to happen at some point between 2013 and 2050.

In an interview with The Ecologist, Anderson tackles the topics of Arctic pollution, the ‘Climategate’ scandal and what it might take for humanity to act on climate change.

Alun Anderson on climate change skeptics:

When you say to them: ‘What has happened to an area of Arctic ice ten times the size of California? It used to be frozen but it isn’t anymore,’ there is simply no answer. The evidence for global warming is not one thing – it’s a great variety of things. And the Arctic – the canary in the coalmine – is just a killer.

Anderson seems to think that people simply won’t deal with a problem until it hits them in the face. A volcanic eruption or an Arctic disaster might shake the powers that be out of complacency.

I’m moving to the position that humans won’t act unless there’s a disaster really close to them. Humans are just hopeless at dealing with things that are far off.

Yet he does not see geo-engineering as a legitimate solution, but rather a bunch of very risky shots in the dark.

Read The Ecologist’s entire interview with Alun Anderson here.

by Graham Land

Additional resources:

The Ecologist – A melted Arctic: gold mine or honey trap?

methane gas capture – photo by meaduva (source: Flickr Creative Commons)

A new article in The Ecologist shines a light on methane, the often-ignored greenhouse gas that is produced from both natural and human sources. Methane’s contribution to the greenhouse effect is estimated to be about 18% compared to CO2’s 63%. Yet it is also 20-30 times more potent than CO2 and has only one tenth the atmospheric life span. This means that methane emission reduction could have a significantly more immediate effect on curbing climate change than cutting CO2, which hasn’t happened yet on a global level anyway.

Man made methane emissions can be reduced in among the following ways:

• Better waste disposal and methane capture from landfills
• Changing livestock diets (and human diets by consuming less livestock)
• Better management of rice cultivation
• Capturing methane released from mining

There are a number of ideas within the field of geo-engineering that deal with the problem of excessive naturally produced methane, which is mostly emitted by wetlands. However, none of the ’solutions’ sound that great. For example, sulfur pollution in acid rain actually reduces natural methane production. But then of course you have to make more acid rain.

The uncertainties about biomass and wetlands pale into relative insignificance when it comes to the vast methane reservoirs locked up in Arctic tundra – methane that scientists are convinced was a factor in previous de-glaciations.

–The Ecologist

Methane and carbon are both locked in permafrost in the Arctic regions. If warming temperatures melt the permafrost, this releases vast amounts of carbon and methane into the atmosphere in a short time, thereby theoretically contributing further to the greenhouse effect and global warming/climate change. This creates a positive feedback loop where continued warming causes more greenhouse gas emissions and vice versa.

For a clear explanation of how methane is emitted from wetlands and melting permafrost check out this video by researchers at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. It’s pretty fun in a ’scientific research meets Bevis and Butthead’ kind of way.

Arctic Lake Methane Ignited by Katey Walter Anthony

by Graham Land

Additional resources:

Global Carbon Project – Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change: Implications for Global Carbon Cycle

Methane even worse greenhouse gas than we thought

Canada’s federal target is 3 per cent below 1990’s level by 2020, equivalent to 20 per cent less than 2006’s level, a target wholly inadequate to address the demands of science and justice that the climate crisis now presents. I am sad to say that Canada has also failed to take a leading role at the talks, instead actually presenting one of the major roadblocks to a fair and legally binding deal. (And all of this is not to mention the public shaming the Canadian delegation received at the hands of the Yes Men).

Why is my government’s performance so troublesome to me? Having spent two weeks in the Arctic this summer, I experienced the land, so far distanced from the stereotypical images of the Arctic I had imagined pre-expedition. The image of snow, ice and polar bears is one of rapid decline. With frightening predictions that polar ice will be non-existent within 30 years, this is no longer an issue we can ignore.

On my expedition this summer, the drastic changes occurring in the North became particularly evident during our hike to the Arctic Circle through Auyuittuq National Park – which means “the land that never melts” – (near Pangnirtung). I had mentally prepared myself for snow, ice and freezing temperatures. Although we crossed frozen rivers that were run-off from the glaciers we could barely see at the tops of mountains, this was as close to snow as we could get.

Seeing this beautiful but so unexpected land was a huge wake-up call. Getting sunburned swimming at the Arctic Circle was my breaking point. How can we continue to watch our world melt away? Having talked to the Elders and the children in Pangnirtung, we saw the unbearable effects of climate change, and could see how climate change is no longer just an environmental issue but also an issue of a way of life, of traditions and of culture.

Canada is known as a promoter of cultures, a peaceful and welcoming country, but with our government’s unwillingness to protect its own citizens, can we still live up to this reputation? The people of the North play such a vital role in our country and we should be taking what’s happening in the poles as a warning beacon as to what will happen in the rest of the world.

“I think it might be illegal to have a climate change presentation without a drowning polar bear.” It was day two of the Development and Climate Change side event and behind the young academic from the University of Hawaii, a giant image of a polar bear floating on a tiny chunk of ice materialized on the screen. A “charismatic megafauna,” she called it with irony in her voice. Beside her on the panel, Sheila Watt-Cloutier, former president of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference, calmly made a note.

It was August of 2007 when I first had the privilege of hearing Sheila Watt-Cloutier speak. I was on Baffin Island in the Eastern Canadian Arctic working with youth concerned about climate change and she gave us a keynote address. Set to the backdrop of the Sylvia Grinnell River, where a fisherman pulled Arctic char from the water, the beauty of the landscape was only surpassed by the grandeur of Watt-Cloutier’s words. Though the basement studio at the Copenhagen Koncerthuse was somewhat less majestic than the park in Iqaluit, the words were no less inspiring.

“In the Arctic,” she said, “we don’t talk about the polar bears.” It was a phrase I’d heard her say before and one that moved me then as it does now. “In the Arctic, we talk about the people.”

It’s a message that haunts those who hear it. You see it resounding in each video clip of melting glaciers and each powerpoint presentation with a polar bear image. You hear it in radio programs and podcast and read it in books on climate change and headlines about endangered species. It is the message that the Arctic is not a wild, uninhabited place, with threatened animals, but a lived environment with threatened communities and people. In Kimmirut and Pangnirtung, hunters are facing unpredictable weather and dangerous conditions on the water. Across the Northwest Territories, ice roads, the arteries of Arctic transportation are melting, further isolating remote settlements. In Tuktoyaktuk, the community is being washed away by rising sea levels and an eroding coastline.

This is the face of climate change. This is the species that is affected by a warming planet. We are the charismatic megafauna.

“We are meeting in extraordinary time, which is referred to many as the great depression. But the bold responses by developed countries during these trying times have also highlighted two very relevant things from our perspective. Markets are important and cannot do all by themselves. Governments must take actions setting paradigm shift,” said M S Puri, joint secretary, Ministry of External Affairs at the meeting of all parties on Tuesday on Poznan.

“The existing cleaner technologies should receive faster technology dissemination in the widest possible way,” said Puri.

An inter-ministerial delegation from India consisting of representatives of the Ministry of Environment and Forests, Ministry of External Affair, Ministry of Power, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Planning Commission and experts drawn from various governmental and other institutions are attending the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Poznan.

Puri urged the United Nations Framework Convention Climate Change (UNFCCC)
to set up a funding mechanism that would procure Intellectual Property Rights and make solar, wind and other such renewable technologies available to developing countries in an affordable manner that would also compensate innovators.

“A body under the UNFCC should be set up for finances and not the World Bank as it is then subject to the World bank discretion,” said R. Rashmi, joint secretary, Ministry of Environment and. Forests (MoEF), Government of India.

“We have the same stand as G77 and China on technology transfer and financial assistance, our views are similar,” said Rashmi.

Technology innovation centres should be built at the regional centre and the research should be disseminated to enable to get the to the grass root problems, for example solar technology.
The negotiations were aimed at identifying the specific elements of a shared vision for long-term cooperative action amongst the parties (countries) for transfer of technology and provision of financial resources to support actions for mitigation and adaptation in the times of melting glaciers, rising sea levels among others.