Last night the Avaaz team had dinner together at a local restaurant. We went around the table and shot out highlights from week one of COP15. My highlight was Tuesday afternoon. Tuvalu, a tiny island nation already being forced to plan for the displacement of its population, had just changed the course of the negotiations. Tuvalu, supported by over 100 countries was standing up for a legally-binding and enforceable agreement as opposed to a political one. Less than an hour after hearing the news of Tuvalu’s brave actions, organizations and youth mobilized to make signs and rally inside the Bella Center to say “Tuvalu is the Real Deal” and “Stand with Tuvalu”. By Friday the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) had submitted a formal proposal that finally put a real climate deal on the table in Copenhagen.
Before I offer a few things you should know about week 1, I want to offer two priorities for the final week:
1. Raise Expectations by Supporting Real Leaders
The final week is all about holding heads of state accountable for a writing a real deal. To raise expectations, we must generate a groundswell of citizen support for the demands of small island states, Africa, and other vulnerable nations inside of COP15. These brave leaders are calling for exactly what we want – a fair, ambitious, and binding treaty that gets us to 350 ppm and limits warming to 1.5 degrees C. We need to remind our leaders that our fates are bound together. By ensuring survival for the world’s most vulnerable we can avoid climate tipping points that would put all of our futures in jeopardy.
2. Stop a Greenwash
We need to draw a bright line between a real deal and a greenwash. Coalitions of nations have formed to create loopholes in everything from how we account for forest emissions reductions to whether we will create additional funds for adaptation and technology transfer or steal money from existing aid budgets. Despite a new administration, the United States remains the central figure keeping global ambitions low at COP15. When countries try to water down a deal, we need to be ready to respond both in Copenhagen and back home on a dime. If the deal is riddled with loopholes, sets emission targets too low, does not include strong long-term financing for developing countries, or is not legally-binding, it simply will not work. With 110+ heads of state putting their credibility on the line in Copenhagen, the risks for an empty political deal rather than a real deal could not be higher.
With those priorities in mind, here’s what you should know about what happened in week 1:
Small Islands and Africa Stood Up for A Real Deal
- On Tuesday and Wednesday COP plenaries were suspended as Tuvalu, supported by more than 100 countries and civil society groups, stood up for a legally-binding treaty.
- On Friday, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), a key bloc of 43 countries, put forth a proposal for a fair, ambitious, and legally-binding treaty that would keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees C and rapidly decrease carbon levels to 350 parts per million.
- Wealthy countries came closer together this week on a number of issues while attempting to divide poor countries. I heard reports of intimidation tactics being used on Tuvalu for their bold actions.
- While speaking to NGOs the lead delegate for the G77 called the goal of limiting warming to 2 degrees C “certain death for Africa and AOSIS”. He called for radical reductions of emissions from developed countries- 52% by 2017, 65% by 2020, 80% by 2030, and well above 100% by 2030. He called the $10 billion/year climate finance proposal “pittance” and called for something like the Marshall Plan, which dedicated 3.2% of the US economy after WWII.
The World Stood up for A Real Deal
- All weekend more than 150,000 people joined the largest climate demonstration in history in Copenhagen, including tens of thousands in Australia, and thousands more in more than 3000 vigils worldwide, all calling for climate justice and a real deal.
- More than 1200 people were arrested in a much criticized crackdown by police in response to a few small skirmishes and minor property damage. The rallies wer overwhelmingly peaceful, beautiful, and positive. At the end of the Saturday march there was a moving candlelight vigil just outside the Bella Center with Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Mary Robinson, and forty children.
- Using media stunts, e-activism, and the mobilizations we defined a successful outcome for Copenhagen as a “real deal” with $200 billion in finance for developing country adaptation and technology transfer per year by 2020, a global peak year in emissions by 2015, and a legally binding treaty.
The EU, Japan, and other wealthy nations failed to lead
- Despite pressure from youth, aliens from Planet B, and groups like Avaaz.org and Oxfam, Japan and the EU have so far passed on the opportunity lead on a strong and long-term global finance package for developing country adaptation and technology transfer.
- Japan strongly opposed setting a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol, winning “Fossil of the Day” on Kyoto’s twelfth birthday on Friday.
- The EU put forth a “fast-start finance” proposal for $10 billion by 2012. Unfortunately Germany missed an opportunity to ensure the money was new and additional to existing commitments, leaving the value of the proposal greatly diminished.
- Poland blocked a decision to raise the EU’s emission target to 30% below 1990 levels by 2020 from 20%.
- Many wealthy nations are waiting for heads of state to arrive next Wednesday before making tough decisions and moving the ball forward.
Posted in Climate Justice, Copenhagen 2009, global warming, News and Media, Political Participation, Politics, South Asia 
